The Downfall
Has Trump's Luck Finally Run Out?
Donald Trump’s luck appears to be finally running out. While he has always had clever political instincts, he has also had an incredible string of good luck. From facing a lackluster candidate in Hilary Clinton to being gifted the presidency by the intransigent stubbornness of Joe Biden, Trump has been a lucky politician by any standards. He has politically survived impeachments and losses in civil and criminal courts, which actually may have worked in his favor.
While it’s always tricky to bet against Trump, it looks like his day of reckoning has finally arrived. If not just the tariffs or the Epstein files or even the Iran war, it was the 60 minutes interview this past Sunday that was the final indication that his luck had run out. When Nora O’Donnell read a sentence from the alleged assassin’s “manifesto” that stated “I am no longer willing to permit a pedophile, rapist and traitor to coat my hands with his crimes,” Trump blasted O’Donnell. “I am not a pedophile…I didn’t rape anyone.”
One might argue that O’Donnell clearly overstepped in quoting from the writings of a mentally disturbed alleged assassin to the president of the United States. That in itself was unprecedented and arguably inappropriate. But Trump could have easily sidestepped the question by saying he would not comment on the ravings of a madman. But he felt compelled – whether for personal or political reasons – to defend himself from the accusations by denying that he was a pedophile or a rapist.
I was instantly reminded of Nixon’s famous statement “I am not a crook” a few months before he resigned in disgrace after the Watergate scandal. With the cloud of suspicion swirling around him, Nixon’s denial confirmed for many Americans that he was in fact a crook. “Methinks he doth protest too much” to paraphrase Shakespeare. For a lot of people, if someone angrily denies something, he probably is guilty. That’s just human nature.
Most Americans likely don’t believe Trump is a pedophile, and whether or not he is a rapist probably depends on how one defines rape. But when a president felt compelled to publicly deny such heinous crimes, something is clearly rotten in Denmark. He may not be a pedophile or a rapist, but something is obviously wrong. Either he is so desperate politically that he has to lash out, or he has deteriorated mentally and is unable to think straight.
Nixon was drinking heavily in the months leading up to his resignation, which may have impaired his personal and political judgment. But looking back, the “I am not a crook” statement sealed his fate. There was no turning back. In a similar vein, Trump’s desperate and irrational lashing out – “I am not a pedophile” -- over accusations from an alleged assassin is a unmistakable signal that his downfall is inevitable, if not imminent.
The question remains about what happens next. Calls for invoking the 25th amendment seem unlikely and launching another impeachment would be impractical and potentially damaging for Democrats. What is more likely is a sort of an awkward interregnum where Trump is effectively sidelined while his administration descends into rival factions battling for power. Sort of a national version of “Weekend At Bernie’s.” Fasten your seatbelts.
Hoyt Hilsman is an author, journalist and Chair of the United Democratic Headquarters in Southern California